Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine
20.03.2024
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Russia's armed forces two years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Despite the losses suffered in Ukraine, Russia has consistently pursued plans to increase the capacity of its armed forces. The article examines the “Shoigu reform” of Russia’s military, the challenges for its defence industry as well as the ideological factors in the militarisation of the state.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
La guerra en Ucrania tras dos años: ¿cómo ayudar a Ucrania para que no la pierda?
The author is of the view that Russia seeks to weaken Ukraine by waging a war of attrition. However, Ukraine might win, provided it keeps receiving military support from Western allies and adopts a defensive stance against Russian aggression.
Institut Montaigne
Guerre en Ukraine, deux ans après
According to this article, at the Munich Security Conference in February Europeans felt more than ever the urgency to react, while the 60 billion dollars in American aid are blocked in Congress. The brief asks: what are the driving forces behind current Putinian rhetoric? How are military positions and the state of public opinion evolving? From awareness to gradually accepting risk, how should Europe adapt its strategy?
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
The author claims that when the full-scale Russian offensive began on 24 February 2022, few observers believed it possible that, two years later, one of the world’s largest armies would still be bogged down in Ukraine. The country has resisted but it must have more military and political support. Ukraine needs to advance towards EU and NATO membership, albeit progressively, as is being discussed in Brussels.
Centre for Eastern Studies (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich)
On the threshold of a third year of war: Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis
The article examines the problems faced by the Ukrainian army in terms of manpower shortage, the constraints of the mobilisation process, the high average age of its soldiers, etc. The new mobilisation law might be a necessary step to improve the situation.
Clingendael Institute
Steun aan Oekraïne: geen tijd om te verliezen
The article argues that 2024 will be a crucial year for Ukraine and for European security. Two years after the large-scale invasion and ten years after the annexation of Crimea, the end of this war is not in sight.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine
Based on the notion that the Russian leadership lacks a master plan for the war against Ukraine and is primarily reacting to developments on the battlefield and to Western action and inaction, this article considers that the West, and in particular the EU and NATO, needs to invest in supporting Ukraine and its own security in the long term. Only through negotiations with security guarantees can Ukraine achieve lasting peace, and only with these western investments can it be made clear to Putin’s regime that it cannot win the war.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Making attrition work: a viable theory of victory for Ukraine
According to this analysis, there are no conditions for another Ukrainian ground offensive in 2024. Therefore, to maximise its chances of victory, high levels of attrition should be privileged over mobility and direct attack. Western countries should help Ukraine ramp up industrial production of capabilities which provide the greatest advantages in an attritional war.
Brookings Institution
Does the West’s Ukraine policy need a reality check? A Brookings debate
Six Brookings scholars debate the questions that Ukraine and its supporters now face. Is Russia winning its war against Ukraine? Should the US and its allies push Ukraine to negotiate with Russia? How can the US and its allies best ensure security and stability in Ukraine and Europe? Should NATO take further steps toward Ukrainian membership at its 75th-anniversary summit in Washington in July? What concrete steps should the US and Europe take in 2024 to prevent a Ukrainian defeat? What would the consequences of a Russian victory be for the trans-Atlantic alliance?
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Rusia, Ucrania y el campo de batalla “transparente”
The brief deals with the profusion of intelligence assets on the Ukrainian battlefield which brings us closer to the situation of a "transparent" battlefield, in the sense that practically all the elements present in the theatre of operations can be detected and located in a very short time. This "transparent" condition of the battlefield has doctrinal and strategic consequences, which explain many of the dynamics that can be observed today on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Deter and divide: Russia's nuclear rhetoric and escalation risks in Ukraine
This analysis focuses on three critical questions: to what end(s) has Russia used nuclear threats and what impact have they had? Have Western efforts to prevent nuclear use been effective? Would Putin consider using nuclear weapons if Russia were losing in Ukraine?
United States Institute of Peace
In search of a formula for lasting peace in Ukraine
The article summarizes Ukraine’s and Western countries’ efforts to ensure a formula for a lasting peace. The key elements are investments in a security structure and institutions that will serve as a disincentive to further Russian aggression.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Ucrania, dos trágicos años sin luz al final del túnel
The article takes the view that Ukraine is dependent on what others decide about its future, which does not appear to be bright, considering Putin’s efforts to place Ukraine under his zone of influence and the increasing fatigue among Western countries in terms of delivering aid.
Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier (Danish Institute of International Studies)
Humanitarian principles are under fire in Ukraine
Based on insights from field research conducted in Ukraine including interviews with humanitarian staff, this brief outlines the ways in which neutrality and impartiality among humanitarian actors in Ukraine are challenged and in some cases compromised. Following this, the brief also looks at the implications for future humanitarian work in Ukraine and other conflict zones.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung (Heinrich Böll Foundation)
Ukraine: wie eine Gesellschaft sich neu erfindet
The article explains how the world admires Ukraine's resilience. In addition to its military strength, Ukraine's resilience is based on its high degree of social self-organization. What is its motivation; how has this experience changed Ukraine; how deeply rooted is this movement in Ukrainian history and the culture of self-organization and the pursuit of freedom, are some of the questions the brief tries to answer.
Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
Europe has a long way to go to replace US aid – large gap between commitments and allocations
The team of the Ukraine support tracker introduces a new measure to track foreign government aid to Ukraine – government “allocations”. The data show that total European aid has long overtaken US aid, but also that the gap between EU commitments and allocations remains very large. To fully replace US military assistance in 2024, Europe would have to double its current level and pace of arms assistance.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)/IFW Kiel/ IFO Institute/ Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Russia’s economy on the eve of the second anniversary of the war
Nearly two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, the report gives an overview of the current state of the Russian economy, with a focus on the fiscal situation, external balances, and the effects of Western sanctions on Russia’s trade with the EU and selected third countries.
Council on Foreign Relations
Two years of war in Ukraine: are sanctions against Russia making a difference?
The United States and its allies have imposed broad economic penalties on Russia over its war in Ukraine. As the conflict continues, this paper debates whether the sanctions are working.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (Friedrich Ebert Foundation)
Build back better for everyone
This policy brief evaluates the approach adopted by the Ukrainian government and international partners, which primarily emphasises reconstruction through economic liberalisation and which has been shaped without the meaningful inclusion of important stakeholders, first and foremost feminist civil society. It argues for an inclusive and transparent process to reconstruct Ukrainian society, with a specific focus on addressing the inequalities exacerbated by the war.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel - Institute for European Studies
Arming Ukraine: can Europe’s bilateral defence agreements make the difference?
At a time when assessments of the war’s trajectory are increasingly bleak, a number of questions arise about the promises and pitfalls of these newfound bilateral security agreements. Who is signing what, and why? What do these NATO and EU members seek to achieve, especially in terms of capability delivery and defence-industrial support? And perhaps most importantly, are they going to make a difference in Ukraine’s armament effort? This brief seeks to address these questions.
Institut Delors
La puissance européenne, serpent de mer ou phénix ?
This article asks if, faced with a large-scale and high-intensity conflict in its geographical area of direct interest, the EU has exercised hard power commensurate with its economic weight; if the war in Ukraine has led to the emergence of a European power, ready for a long-term balance of power, including military power; and if the sea serpent is a phoenix in the making.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Wars and elections: how European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
This paper takes stock of the current state of European public opinion on the war in Ukraine. It draws on the results of a poll ECFR commissioned in January 2024 in 12 European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). Given the mixed picture this analysis reveals, it then puts forward a strategy for how leaders can best make the case to continue European support for Kyiv.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
What’s at stake in the EU elections: Ukraine aid
The European Parliament elections in 2024 will shape the political direction of the EU over the next five years and, therefore, constitute a defining moment. The author examines the impact the elections will have on EU policy in relation to support for Ukraine.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Bilateral security agreements with Ukraine: present opportunities and challenges
Bilateral agreements signed recently by some NATO members (the UK, France and Germany) with Ukraine raise the pressure to maintain support for the country. The article presents short-term benefits of the agreements, arguing that they will serve as a point of reference for other countries, such as Poland.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
EU policy towards Ukraine: entering geopolitical competition over European order
Since 2004, competition between the EU and Russia over the European political, economic and security order intensified sporadically, with a focal point in Ukraine. The EU’s main mitigation tactic in response to this competition used to be denial, but in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this approach became untenable.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Ukraine as a mirror: should we pay an insurance premium?
According to the paper, Ukraine has become a mirror that reflects a number of images: the breakdown of Europe’s security and defence architecture; Russia’s revisionist and revanchist policies; the heroism of the Ukrainian people; Ukraine’s dependency on western and, in particular, US aid; the unity of the 27 EU member states in supporting its neighbour; and the differing perceptions of citizens in Europe and across the world of the nature of the threat the conflict represents.
New America Foundation
Targeting the Wagner group: how the U.S. can strengthen sanctions against Russia
An analysis of the sanctioning of Prigozhin’s corporate holdings, assets, and entities associated with the Wagner Group’s operations over the past decade offers lessons for how to sharpen the bite of diplomatic and financial tools and contain the destabilizing effects of Russia’s irregular forces. To shed light on how the US government has utilized sanctions to curtail the capabilities of Russian irregular groups and how these measures have evolved over time.
Atlantic Council
Undermining Ukraine: how Russia widened its global information war in 2023
The article discusses how in the lead-up to the February 2022 invasion, Russia employed disinformation in the form of narrative warfare to justify military action, mask its planning, and deny any responsibility for the war. It explores how Russia further entrenched these efforts throughout 2023, developing new messages and techniques while recommitting to ones that continue to prove effective.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
The unchanging core: Russian military culture examined through the Ukrainian war
The brief argues that time has arrived to delve into the depths of Russia’s reform and modernization endeavours. It aims to unveil the essence of ‘Ivan’s war’ on Ukrainian soil. This inquiry poses compelling questions: can we truly decipher the unique contours of their military culture and, consequently, discern a distinct Russian way of war?
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Trending? Social media attention on Russia’s war in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is one of the most important geopolitical events of the 21st century. For almost two years, international news outlets have been covering the war, often providing daily or even hourly updates. But what is the level of public interest and public engagement in countries around the world? When does the war capture an international audience’s attention and what are the events that supplant it? This brief addresses the above questions.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Russia-Ukraine war’s strategic implications
This study offers a holistic analysis of the conflict and its implications for the armed forces of European countries, as well as for NATO, EU defence, aerospace and defence industry in the Euro-Atlantic area.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The Russia-Ukraine war and implications for the European defence industry
Two years after the Russian attack on Ukraine, it is clear to the author that the European defence technological and industrial basis was ill-equipped to face the consequences of a large-scale, high-intensity conflict on the old continent. The war changed three decades of procurement policies, production and technological trends that had previously shaped (not only) Europe’s approach to defence hardware.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Six takeaways from two years of Russia-Ukraine war
This paper deals with six takeaways that can be gained for the armed forces of European countries, NATO and EU defence initiatives, with a view to deterring Moscow from further aggression and if necessary defending Europe from them.
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