CFR DAily News Brief October 9, 2023:Israel orders fullsiege of Gaza...

 

Daily News Brief October 9, 2023

Top of the Agenda Israel Orders Full Siege of Gaza in Response to Shock Hamas Attack Israel’s defense minister ordered a “complete siege” of the Gaza Strip (NYT) today in response to the Palestinian militant group Hamas’s surprise weekend offensive. Hamas’s attack, the deadliest on Israel in recent history, has killed more than seven hundred people in Israel and triggered Israeli attacks on Gaza, stoking fears of a wider regional conflict. Israeli forces battled to regain control (Reuters) of towns near the border with Gaza today, while both Israel and Gaza militants exchanged rocket fire. At least 560 Palestinians have been killed since Saturday, Gaza authorities said.  In the wake of Hamas’s attack, the United States deployed (NYT) warships near Israel, as well as pledged to provide munitions. Qatar is reportedly mediating efforts (Reuters) to free Israeli hostages currently held in Gaza. A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry denied that Tehran was involved in the Hamas attack, though analysts said its sophistication required outside backing and Iran is a longtime Hamas sponsor. The conflict has also fueled concerns that the prospect of Israeli-Saudi normalization could be at risk.

Analysis “The United States has an interest in calming things down as quickly as possible. That is not Israel’s interest at the moment. Its interest is to reestablish deterrence, and for that it intends to extract a very high price,” CFR expert Martin S. Indyk says during a media briefing on the implications of Hamas’s attack.   “From Hamas and its backers’ perspective, Israel seemed weak and divided given the months of popular demonstrations against the government over its effort to make critical changes to the judiciary,” CFR expert Steven A. Cook writes in this In Brief.    “[Iran] with its backing of Hamas and Hezbollah has been working to coordinate pressure on Israel, threatening further escalation of the shadow war between the two countries,” CFR expert Ray Takeyh writes in this In Brief. Check out the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim Taiwan Accuses China of Attempting to Sway Its Election by Extending Trade Probe   Taiwan’s Office of Trade Negotiations said China was trying to interfere (Reuters) with the island’s January 2024 election by extending a probe into its trade practices by another three months until as late as one day before the vote. The probe could result in Beijing suspending (SCMP) some or all of an economic cooperation deal with Taipei.  U.S./China: U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told Chinese President Xi Jinping in a meeting today that he was “very disappointed” (AP) that China did not strongly condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel. Schumer is leading a bipartisan senatorial delegation to China this week in the first such visit since 2019.

South and Central Asia Earthquake in Western Afghanistan Kills Over Two Thousand People Officials from Afghanistan’s Taliban government said more than 1,240 others had been wounded (CNN) in a quake and its aftershocks that struck Saturday in the province of Herat, with expectations that number will grow. UN agencies dispatched aid supplies, but international aid groups have said their ability to respond is limited by the Taliban. Pakistan: Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is scheduled to be formally charged (Dawn) on October 17 with releasing state secrets, a court decided today.

Middle East and North Africa World Bank, IMF Begin Annual Meeting in Morocco The World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are hosting their annual meeting in Africa for the first time in fifty years. They are expected to weigh (AP) how their lending policies should adapt to help countries respond to climate change and natural disasters. Morocco hosts the meeting a month after its own deadly earthquake killed nearly three thousand people.

Sub-Saharan Africa Senegal President Shakes up Cabinet, Retains Successor Ahead of Elections President Macky Sall dismissed several cabinet members (Bloomberg) in advance of the country’s presidential election next year but retained his prime minister and chosen successor, Amadou Ba. The president’s office said new officials would be announced shortly.   For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin discusses why the recent dissolution of Senegal’s opposition party is a step backwards for Senegalese democracy. DRC: Twenty-four candidates signed up to run for president (Reuters) in the December election in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), suggesting the opposition vote to try to unseat President Félix Tshisekedi could be divided. Tshisekedi will seek a second term.

Europe Germany’s Conservatives, Far-Right Perform Well in Two State Elections Center-right conservative parties, which are in opposition to Germany’s center-left ruling coalition, won two elections (Bloomberg) yesterday in the German states of Hesse and Bavaria. The far-right Alternative for Germany party won second place in Hesse and third in Bavaria, expanding its electoral success beyond its traditional stronghold of East Germany.   France/Germany: Cabinet ministers from both governments are attending a rare two-day retreat (Reuters) beginning today in Hamburg, Germany, in an effort to reset relations after disagreements on electricity reform and defense policy.

Americas Suspects of Killing Ecuadorian Presidential Candidate Found Dead in Prison Six men accused of murdering presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August were found dead (WaPo) in a prison in the port city of Guayaquil on Friday. The next day, a seventh suspect was also reported dead in a prison near the capital, Quito. The FBI is supporting a probe into Villavicencio’s killing; meanwhile, Ecuador heads into its final vote to select a president on October 15.    U.S./Colombia: New York City Mayor Eric Adams wrapped up a four-day trip to Latin America in northern Colombia by calling for migrants in the United States (AP) to be given the “right to work.” His visit focused on learning about the motives for northern migration and he praised moves to integrate migrants in Colombia by giving them permission to work. In this article, CFR expert Will Freeman looks at the regional factors behind New York City’s migrant crisis.

United States Some U.S. Senators Aim to Rush Confirmation of Ambassador to Israel Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-MD) called for a prompt confirmation of Jack Lew (Politico) as U.S. ambassador to Israel following the Hamas attacks, while a spokesperson for ranking member Jim Risch (R-ID) said the committee will perform its due diligence as quickly as possible to move the nomination forward. The post is currently vacant. For the Pressure Points blog, CFR expert Elliott Abrams lays out why vacant U.S. ambassadorships across the Middle East undermine U.S. influence.

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