Al - Monitor Turkey Briefing August 18, 2023 : Turkey- Russia ties , Morocco’s aeronautics industry and more...

 

	August 18, 2023
Turkey Briefing

Welcome back to Turkey Briefing! If this week was a song for Turkey, it would be legendary Billy Idol’s “Hot in the City.” It’s extremely hot here day and night — and relatively quiet.   Thanks for reading and enjoy the weekend, Ezgi (@ezgi_akin) Leading the week Trouble in paradise? While there are some signals of a strain in Turkey-Russia ties, Ankara is going to great lengths to keep issues at bay and tensions low. First, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has not traveled to Turkey yet this month, despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s repeated assertions that he would. According to local Turkish media outlets that are close to the presidency, a potential meeting between Putin and Erdogan — who is scheduled to travel to Hungary, India and the United States in the upcoming weeks — is still on the table. However, if the meeting takes place, it could happen in Russia instead of Turkey, these outlets reported this week.  The shifting narrative comes after a Russian raid on a Ukraine-bound cargo ship owned by a Turkish citizen off Turkey's Black Sea coast last Sunday. Earlier this week, Moscow also released footage of the raid showing its Turkish crew with their hands on their knees nervously trying to communicate with Russian soldiers who came aboard after stopping the vessel with warning shots. While Moscow described the raid as an “inspection,” Ankara’s avoidance to publicly comment on the development came under intense criticism, forcing Turkish authorities to announce that Russia was “warned” over the incident.  Yet the Turkish president's press office on Thursday downplayed the incident, stressing that the raided ship was not a Turkey-flagged vessel. “Despite all this,” the statement said, “the interlocutors in the Russian Federation were warned in an appropriate manner against attempts that would escalate the tension in the Black Sea.” Also, on Thursday the Turkish Defense Ministry carefully distanced Turkey from Western efforts to find alternative routes in the Black Sea after Russia’s withdrawal from a key deal that had granted safe passage to commercial and civilian ships traveling to and from Ukraine.  A high-level Turkish Defense Ministry official speaking to Turkish media stressed that Ankara was focusing its efforts on the revival of the Ukraine-Russia Black Sea grain deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations. “Other countries,” the official said, “are working on alternative routes. We are also following these developments closely.” The statement came as a Hong Kong-flagged cargo ship was en route to Turkish waters. Joseph Schulte became the first ship to leave a Ukrainian Black Sea port under a de-facto Russian blockade in place since Moscow’s withdrawal from the grain deal. The ship safely reached Romanian waters after leaving Ukraine’s Odessa port amid Russian attacks. Avoiding international waters, it reached Turkish seas via Bulgarian waters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the route as “Ukraine’s new humanitarian corridor.” For more details check out my story here. From Al-Monitor Pro: Morocco to continue to attract likes of Boeing and Airbus as aeronautics industry grows Morocco’s aeronautics industry has come a long way over the past decade. The country hosts a wide range of global manufacturers making parts for aircraft builders such as Airbus or Boeing, has invested significantly in upgrading its workforce, and has driven a great deal of sophistication into its supply chains. According to the industry representative body, GIMAS, most large-scale civilian aircraft built today by companies carry at least one component made in the kingdom.  Some of the latest newcomers to join Morocco’s growing industrial base in 2023 include aeronautics suppliers Sabca, Pratt & Whitney, Hexcel, and Hutchinson, all of whom are looking to capitalize on the many advantages Morocco has to offer amidst a recovery in global air traffic following the COVID-19 pandemic. Read more. Our top stories • Who was really behind the killing of Islamic State leader Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Quraishi? Despite Erdogan’s announcement in May that Turkey had killed the radical jihadi leader, Biden administration officials and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — the al-Qaeda offshoot that is dominant in Syria’s Idlib province — challenged the Turkish account. Our Senior Correspondent Amberin Zaman and Pentagon Correspondent Jared Szuba have the scoop on the saga of Quraishi’s death here.  • Our State Department correspondent Elizabeth Hagedorn reports on new US sanctions targeting a pair of Turkey-backed armed Syrian factions that Washington accuses of serious human rights abuses in northern Syria’s Afrin region.  • Turkey’s growing problems in Syria are not limited to the shady groups it backs. In his analysis over the weekend, Danny Makki explains why Turkish and Russian hopes for a reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus are dimming. The main impediment facing the reconciliation process seems to be the presence of Turkish troops in Syria, and Turkey shows no sign of blinking on the matter, as I reported here.  • On the domestic front, one of the biggest stories of the week was Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s announcement of his reelection bid in the local elections scheduled to be held in March 2024. The announcement meant that Istanbul’s charismatic mayor would not challenge Kemal Kilicdaroglu for the leadership of the Republican People's Party (CHP). Many CHP heavyweights, including Imamoglu, have pressed Kilicdaroglu to resign after his defeat in the May general elections. Announcing his re-election bid, Imamoglu signaled once again that Kilicdaroglu must go to ensure the CHP’s success in the local polls. For more details check out my story here.  • As Turkey’s opposition parties appear to be largely in disarray after the election debacle in May, Erdogan and officials from his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are in full swing to work toward winning local elections, with several cabinet ministers touring across the country each week. Erdogan’s new economy team, led by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, meanwhile gained another score this week after US-based rating agency Moody’s upgraded the outlook for Turkish banks. Jack Dutton has the story. Recommended reads Economist Murat Kubilay gives a sober look at the track record of Turkey’s new economic team in a piece for the Middle East Institute. Veteran defense author Burak Bekdil  deciphers what message Russia was signaling to Turkey when it bombed Ukrainian business Motor Sich in an analysis for Defense News.