The industries of the future will be heavily reliant on chips. Semiconductors will be critical to the foundational technologies of artificial intelligence (AI), 3D printing, the Internet of Things, and advanced robotics.
As the supply chains of this critical industry recalibrate amid a U.S.-China trade war, this working paper outlines the geopolitical shifts underway. It reviews the ongoing efforts to shape semiconductor supply chains and the consequences this might have for India and other countries....
"CONCLUSION
The geopolitics of the semiconductor supply chain has undergone a rapid shift with the introduction of export-control measures by the United States. Semiconductors were not initially entangled with the larger issues driving the U.S.-China trade war. However, the U.S. Department of Commerce placing Huawei on its Restricted Entity List in 2019 meant that a new rationale grounded in maintaining its technological superiority was introduced by the United States. Given that U.S. export-control measures have been applied alongside tariffs introduced by China and the United States, a decoupling of their economies is underway. This decoupling has accelerated with other restrictions introduced by the Trump and Biden administrations regarding investment screening and visas.
Outcomes that may result from the export-control measures include a stoking of China’s efforts to wean itself off U.S.-controlled chokepoints in the supply chain, a possible “designing-out” of American components in some semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and unintended consequences in the form of short-term costs being inflicted on American semiconductor companies.
Given the geopolitical nature of the U.S.-China battle to secure key chokepoints in the semiconductor supply chain, semiconductor companies will be looking to reconcile these different outcomes to ensure that their supply chains do not have to be significantly recalibrated. The provisions in the U.S. Chips and Science Act that permit the production of “mature” node semiconductors in China is a case in point. Semiconductor companies will also be evaluating coalitions of like-minded nations that may band together to ensure that a seamless supply chain can operate. In this regard, it will be interesting to see how India’s efforts as a part of the Quad’s Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative, which is still short on details, will play out.
In the long term, India is likely to introduce policies that help attract some semiconductor manufacturing and design capabilities to the country, especially if the hollowing of China’s semiconductor industrial base continues to take place. The U.S. export-control measures have, for the moment, gutted China’s semiconductor industry, but that has only expedited Beijing’s movement toward developing its indigenous technology infrastructure. How these efforts to shape semiconductor supply chains evolve will be one of the defining trends of the twenty-first century."
(Bu yazı çok kapsamlı ve uzun. 172 adet foot note var.) Bu nedenle sadece "conclusion" bölümünü buraya aktardım. )
No comments:
Post a Comment