Bloomberg Balance of Power - July 15, 2023

 

After months of diplomatic wrangling, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to support Sweden’s bid to join NATO in a major breakthrough for the military alliance’s drive to strengthen its defenses in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. President Joe Biden said decisions made by the US and its allies in the coming years will determine the fate of democracy, as he championed the success at this week’s NATO summit and sought to implicitly bolster his prospects for reelection next year.   Soaring temperatures broke multiple records across the planet. A high-pressure system named Cerberus — after the three-headed hound from Dante’s Inferno — is bearing down on southern Europe, while nearly 25% of the US population is facing a heat wave that’s raising health risks.  Delve into these and other top stories in this edition of Weekend Reads. — Karl Maier

Ukrainian artillerymen load missiles onto a self-propelled 122 millimeter multiple rocket launcher near Bakhmut on Thursday.  Photographer: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images Check out the latest Washington Edition newsletter. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up here.

NATO Is Papering Over the Cracks After Zelenskiy Loses His Cool There was friction this week between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and NATO leaders over their reluctance to give his country a clear timeline on becoming a member of the alliance. Milda Seputyte, Jennifer Jacobs and Natalia Drozdiak spoke to more than a dozen diplomats and officials to discover how it all played out.  Europe Can’t Supply Ukraine With Weapons Fast Enough Europe’s defense contractors face a dilemma almost 18 months into the war in Ukraine. Do they gamble on expanding production, assuming the war and tensions with Russia will last indefinitely? Or do they hold back until they get long-term commitments from governments that have spent decades cutting their defense budgets? Wagner mercenaries have emerged in Belarus as military instructors, the first official sign of the group’s presence in the country since the mutiny in Russia. China Warplanes Make Biggest Taiwan Incursion in 3 Months  China sent the most warplanes into sensitive areas around Taiwan since large-scale military exercises in April, a move that follows visits to the democratically run island by US and Canadian lawmakers. Cindy Wang and Kari Lindberg explain that Beijing argues nations with which it has official ties having contact with Taiwan’s leaders amounts to interference in its internal affairs.  America’s largest semiconductor companies are sending senior executives to Washington in a last-ditch effort to head off new curbs on their sales to China. Biden Maneuvers Around Another China Spy Row to Improve Ties  The Biden administration is maintaining its China-engagement strategy, even after the State Department reported anomalous activity to Microsoft that the tech firm later blamed on China-based hackers. Iain Marlow reports that the hacking episode underlines the growing risks of restarting crucial diplomatic engagement between the world’s two largest economies. Trump’s New York, Miami Indictments Sparked Extremist Threats Former US President Donald Trump’s criminal indictments in New York and Miami sparked a barrage of threats from extremist supporters and alleged Russian hackers, including bomb warnings, protest plans and other forms of violence. Jason Leopold delved into 85 pages of documents to provide a behind-the-scenes look at how federal agents responded. Trump asked the Georgia Supreme Court to halt a state investigation into his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion This Week

The World Needs a Climate Marshall Plan: David Fickling Europe Is Pledging Ukraine Weapons It Can’t Make: Max Hastings Spain’s Political Storm Stirs Separatists: Rachel Sanderson Kevin McCarthy Appeases the Radicals Again: Jonathan Bernstein India’s Northeast Is on the Brink. Where’s Modi?: Ruth Pollard Thai Conservatives Stop Pro-Democracy Candidate From Becoming PM Senators appointed by the army in Thailand blocked pro-democracy candidate Pita Limjaroenrat from becoming prime minister in the first vote since his party won the most seats in a May election. As Patpicha Tanakasempipat explains, that’s raised political tensions as the nation struggles to end nearly a decade of military-backed rule. Pita supporters outside parliament on Thursday. Photographer: Valeria Mongelli/Bloomberg Germans Aren’t Buying Scholz’s Plan to Keep Them Safe and Rich Chancellor Olaf Scholz is struggling to persuade Germans he can handle the litany of troubles facing the country he has led since 2021. Arne Delfs writes that with his governing coalition beset by squabbling, the shadow of a recession lingering, and the industrial base underpinning Germany’s economic model under threat, Scholz is on the back foot. AI Is Making Politics Easier, Cheaper and a Lot More Dangerous Artificial intelligence is poised to boost the productivity of political workers and probably eliminate more than a few of their jobs. But, as Emily Birnbaum and Laura Davison explain, AI can also supercharge the dissemination of misinformation in campaigns through “deep fakes,” bogus pictures and videos that will soon be indistinguishable from real ones, enabling bad actors to literally put words in their opponents’ mouths.