Atlantic Council Editors <editor@atlanticcouncil.org>
6:06 PM (2 hours ago) July 15, 2023
This week's edition brought to you by
Katherine Walla, Associate Director, Editorial
JULY 15, 2023 | If last year’s NATO Summit in Madrid was unquestionably historic, last week’s Vilnius summit will have a somewhat more complicated legacy. Of course, Ukraine’s hopes for a swift, concrete path to NATO membership didn’t pan out. But Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis helped put everything into perspective while speaking alongside Ukraine’s Andriy Yermak at the NATO Public Forum: Vilnius is not the “last stop” for Ukraine’s membership journey, Landsbergis said. Rather, the summit is more a “bridge” between Madrid and next year’s Washington summit—and included its share of major developments. Sweden, for one, took an Erdoğan-sized step across the bridge to Alliance membership, while the NATO made great strides on deterrence plans across its territory. Catch up on it all courtesy of our experts, who have been keeping one ear on the ground in Vilnius and the other on more events unfolding around the world.
#1.Red light, green light. When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gave Sweden a green light for NATO membership, he also signaled a change in Turkey’s geopolitical posture, writes Grady Wilson, who helps guide the Council’s work on Turkey. According to Grady, that posture is now leaning more clearly westward. And the pivot is happening despite Turkey and Russia’s deep economic ties and Turkey’s historic grievances with transatlantic partners. But Russia’s weakness, seen most recently in last month's Wagner Group mutiny, makes it a less reliable partner for Turkey—and has helped open the door for a surprising post-election pivot. Explore Erdoğan’s thinking and what it means for the United States and NATO.
#2.View from the streets. We know what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thinks about the outcomes of the NATO Summit, which included the first session of the NATO-Ukraine Council and reassurance that Ukraine wouldn’t have to complete a lengthy membership action plan to join the Alliance. But when it comes to understanding the varying perspectives held among Ukrainians, look no further than UkraineAlert Editor Peter Dickinson. Peter, who is based in Kyiv, writes that his Ukrainian connections were frustrated, even angry, with the lack of urgency emerging from NATO allies in Vilnius. “Should I patiently wait until a Russian missile strikes my apartment in Kyiv with my kids inside?” one activist told Peter. Check out what else Ukrainians are saying about the summit.
#3.Questionable club. Waiting on membership since 2008: Sound familiar? In this case, it’s Iran, which finally became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) after having first applied fifteen years ago. And while Iran is certain to get some privileges—deeper coordination with China and Russia among them—it isn’t Iran’s membership that’s the most concerning part of the SCO, writes Jonathan Fulton, an expert on Chinese policy toward the Middle East. Rather, it is that the SCO is based in illiberalism, specifically the Chinese brand of it. “The SCO could be a key platform for institutionalizing authoritarian cooperation and resilience,” Jonathan writes. Thus, keep an eye on where the group expands next. Get up to speed on the SCO’s global influence.
#4.Debt doubts. In India right now, Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors are gathering to discuss debt restructuring for developing countries that defaulted on their debts amid the COVID-19 crisis and global inflation. But some of the debt restructuring plans now on offer (particularly from lender China) may be a bit questionable, write Jeremy Mark and Vasuki Shastry, former International Monetary Fund officials and our correspondents on the debt crisis. The plans may include conditions behind the scenes or may simply extend debt repayments for decades without any forgiveness. And those plans, warn Jeremy and Vasuki, siphon off resources for health, education, and social programs, making development much harder to achieve. Read their plea for forgiveness—of developing country debt.
#5.Final countdown. Policymakers have limited time to define the future of US-Africa trade, writes Frannie Léautier. That’s because the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—which gives eligible countries in sub-Saharan Africa duty-free access to the US market—is set to expire in 2025. Frannie, who previously worked for both the World Bank and African Development Bank, puts it plainly (or, rather, briefly) in a preview of her forthcoming report: Tens of billions of dollars of trade are at stake and so is the wellbeing of over 1.3 billion people. Thus, the development-finance expert writes, the US Congress must extend AGOA ASAP; while it is doing so, it should offer more stability in granting eligibility decisions and help African governments develop their AGOA strategies. Read Frannie’s recommendations for a renewed AGOA.
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