The possibility of forming a coalition government after the May 21 elections, thus avoiding a second ballot in July, has entered the political discourse as the latest polls show New Democracy recovering some lost ground and winning with a percentage high enough to allow for the formation of a two-party coalition with PASOK. In ND they anticipate getting up to 36%, with SYRIZA falling under 30%. The latter’s strategists see a tighter race with the main opposition trailing the ruling party by 3%.
Still, this prospect remains a long shot as ND and PASOK would need almost 47% of the votes. Maybe more importantly, not everyone is keen on seeing such a scenario through.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for one, prefers a strong showing in the first election but not enough to have a majority in parliament with PASOK, in order to have a plausible rationale for taking the country to another election where the power balance will be better for his party.
He is convinced that in a second election New Democracy will be able to form a single party government, and even if forced to enter into a coalition with a junior partner, it will do so from a position of strength compared to the May elections.
This will be the case because in July ND will certainly get more votes and, due to the different electoral law that grants the winner a bonus, also many more seats in parliament.
On the other hand, as the discussion about potential coalitions has become the main issue of the pre-election period, the aim of centrist PASOK seems to be that if it is to enter into a coalition it would be better to do so after the first poll instead of the second, as in the latter its percentage will be smaller and its comparative position weaker.
Despite the analyses above, lately in interviews and public comments Mitsotakis had distanced himself from PASOK and its leader, insisting on ND achieving an absolute majority and avoiding the compromises that will be needed in order to form a coalition if his party falls short of the majority.
Last, but definitely not least, there is also an alternative scenario for New Democracy: either working with the far-right Greek Solution or just absorbing the necessary number of deputies from other parties, if the ruling Conservatives fall short of a majority by just a few seats.
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