Ukrainian emergency personnel at the site of a recent shelling in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine, January 2023
Alexander Ermochenko / ReutersForeign Affairs has recently published a number of articles
on the war in Ukraine, the potential outcomes of the conflict,
and the possibility of a negotiated settlement between Kyiv and Moscow. To complement these essays, we asked a broad pool of experts for their take. As with previous surveys, we approached dozens of authorities with expertise relevant to the question at
hand, along with leading generalists in the field. Participants
were asked to state whether they agreed or disagreed with a proposition and to rate their confidence level in their opinion.
Their answers are below.
DEBATE STATEMENT
The most likely outcome of the war in Ukraine is a negotiated settlement that involves Kyiv making some territorial concessions to Russia.
Agnia Grigas
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 4
Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council
A negotiated settlement and territorial concessions are unlikely in the near term. Russia has been unable to win in Ukraine...Read MoreAlexander Cooley
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 3
Claire Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University
Thinking through this question about territorial concessions, it may be useful to distinguish among: (1) territory that has been occupied...Read MoreAlexander Vershbow
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council
War is more likely to wind down to a series of temporary cease-fires with no agreement on changes to Ukraine’s...Read MoreAndrea Kendall-Taylor
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security
Any settlement that involves Kyiv making territorial concessions would only perpetuate the war by emboldening Moscow to attack Ukraine again...Read MoreAndrei Kolesnikov
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The war is going on and will continue for a long time without a realistic political and diplomatic way out...Read MoreAngela Stent
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Nonresident Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy at the Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings
Russia has violated every agreement involving Ukraine’s territorial integrity that it has signed in the past 30 years. A negotiated...Read MoreAnna Reid
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Historian, Former Ukraine Correspondent for The Economist
From bitter experience, the Ukrainians know that their only route to security is a decisive victory. And the Kremlin shows...Read MoreAnton Barbashin
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Editorial Director at Riddle Russia
This war is a question of survival of both the Ukrainian state and Putin’s regime in Russia. The conclusion of...Read MoreAustin Carson
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago
Barry R. Posen
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Ford International Professor of Political Science at the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Predicting the course and conclusion of any war is a fraught business. There are too many important decisions on both...Read MoreChas W. Freeman
STRONGLY AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
The alternative is the de facto partition of Ukraine with continuing military confrontation along the border between Russian and Ukrainian-controlled...Read MoreChris Blattman
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Professor in the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago
Dan Altman
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 4
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Georgia State University
The war will not end soon. When it does, it will most likely end with a cease-fire agreement that leaves...Read MoreDan Healey
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Emeritus Professor of Modern Russian History at Oxford University
A negotiated settlement will yield a “frozen conflict” that will simply be reactivated at some further stage; neither side’s aims...Read MoreDan Reiter
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor of Political Science at Emory University
It is still difficult to predict the war’s outcome at this point. Of course, Ukraine has fought surprisingly well against...Read MoreDaniel Treisman
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles
Even if Ukraine’s leaders wanted to end the war through territorial concessions (which they do not), they strongly believe—I think...Read MoreDara Massicot
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation
It may be difficult for Ukrainian forces to evict Russian forces from all occupied areas, which would result in a...Read MoreDmitri Alperovitch
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Executive Chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator
Unfortunately, this war is likely to go on for a prolonged period of time. Once Putin chose to illegally annex...Read MoreDmitry Gorenburg
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses
I do not think that any formal concessions of territory captured since February 24, 2022, are likely. There is some...Read MoreEdward Fishman
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Senior Research Scholar at the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University
In invading Ukraine, Putin sought to rebuild a sort of Russian empire. But Russia’s disastrous military performance and the long-term...Read MoreEmma Ashford
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 4
Senior Fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center
There are three likely scenarios for the war in Ukraine: (1) that it will end in a negotiated settlement with...Read MoreEugene Finkel
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Henry Hale
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University
The point is not only that the Ukrainian people will not accept territorial concessions and are now winning. If Russia...Read MoreHubertus Jahn
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Professor of the History of Russia and the Caucasus at the University of Cambridge
While I agree that some kind of negotiated settlement will be at the end of this war, the question of...Read MoreIvo Daalder
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs
It is extremely difficult to see how the war in Ukraine ends in a durable peace through negotiations. Not all...Read MoreJacob Heilbrunn
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Editor of The National Interest
The apostles of appeasing Russian President Vladimir Putin like to contend, more often than not in the name of a...Read MoreJill Dougherty
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 1
Adjunct Professor at the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown University
Everything about this war has been unpredictable and often counterintuitive. Rationally, this is the answer I would give. But Putin...Read MoreJohn Mearsheimer
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago
It is hard to imagine Ukraine winning the war and gaining back all its lost territory, including Crimea. It is...Read MoreJohn Mueller
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 3
Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University and Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute
I think this the most likely outcome as of now. However, other outcomes, such as a Russian military collapse or...Read MoreKeith Darden
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Associate Professor in the School of International Service at American University
It is unlikely that Ukraine will return to its 1991 boundaries by force of arms. It is even less likely,...Read MoreKimberly Marten
STRONGLY AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University
Ukraine will probably have to give up Crimea to Russia to reach a peace deal. Since 2014, the peninsula has...Read MoreKonstantin Sonin
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy
I do not think that Russia will accept any reasonable negotiated settlement under Putin, who has not changed his maximalist...Read MoreLauren Kahn
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 4
Research Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Nearly all wars end in some form of negotiation. Ukraine has successfully retaken Russian-controlled territory, and if this trend continues,...Read MoreLawrence Freedman
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London
The war is unlikely to end with a negotiated settlement. Ukraine will fight on rather than making territorial concessions, and...Read MoreLeon Aron
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
Certainly not in the short run of one to two years. After the savagery perpetrated by the Russian military on...Read MoreLiana Fix
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations
A negotiated settlement with Ukrainian territorial concessions would assume that Moscow is willing to compromise on its maximalist war aims...Read MoreLincoln Mitchell
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 3
Adjunct Research Scholar in the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University
Luke Coffey
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute
Under the current military and political circumstances in Ukraine, it is hard to imagine a scenario that results in Kyiv...Read MoreLyle Goldstein
STRONGLY AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities; Visiting Professor at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
The people of Ukraine have won the admiration of the world with their courage. Now it is time for realism...Read MoreMaria Lipman
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Editor of Russia.Post
The current situation is very uncertain, with neither side willing to end the fighting. We may not see an end...Read MoreMark Beissinger
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Henry W. Putnam Professor of Politics at Princeton University
Assuming that the war continues in its current trajectory (i.e., a slow Ukrainian advance into Russian-occupied territories), territorial concessions by...Read MoreMarlene Laruelle
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Research Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University
Michael David-Fox
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 4
Professor of History and Director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies at Georgetown University
The endgame to the war is still hard to predict with much certainty, and while this scenario is seemingly one...Read MoreMichael Kimmage
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Professor of History at Catholic University; Senior Associate at the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
In this war, even an extended cease-fire will be difficult to reach, as it would be interpreted by each side...Read MoreMike Mazarr
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation
It is one possible outcome, but not “the most likely,” and not even likely at this point. I assume the...Read MoreMikhail Alexseev
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Bruce E. Porteous Professor of Political Science at San Diego State University
If a negotiated settlement with territorial concessions is reached, Russia will proceed, perhaps after a pause, until it subjugates Ukraine...Read MoreMiranda Priebe
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy at the RAND Corporation
If this conflict remains conventional and limited to Russia and Ukraine, then it will likely end with a negotiated settlement....Read MoreNicholas Miller
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College
Nicolai N. Petro
STRONGLY AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island
The alternative to a negotiated settlement that includes new borders is perpetual warfare....Nigel Gould-Davies
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Senior Fellow for Eurasia and Russia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
Neither Ukraine nor the West has any reason to believe that territorial concession would satisfy, rather than embolden, Russia. Such...Read MoreNikolas Gvosdev
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 3
Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval War College
At this point, too many variables are in play: willingness of the West to continue to support Ukraine and maintain...Read MoreNina Khrushcheva
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Professor of International Affairs at The New School
Both countries think that they have weakened the opposition and therefore are not ready to negotiate. For now, Ukraine is...Read MoreOlga Oliker
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 1
Director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group
When speaking of a war that has tended to confound predictions, it is safer not to make new ones. This...Read MoreOxana Shevel
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University
Patrick Porter
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham
Terminating wars between roughly balanced adversaries is a hard process. Short of an improbable outright resolution via brute force, compromise...Read MorePavel Baev
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo
This outcome will signify a serious defeat for the West, and the resources needed for achieving a better one are...Read MorePeter Clement
STRONGLY AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Interim Director of the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs
Crimea—even after Putin is out—is unlikely to be returned to Ukraine. The regions of the east Crimea, as long as...Read MoreRichard K. Betts
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 4
Leo A. Shifrin Professor of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University
Robert D. Kaplan
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 3
Robert Strausz-Hupé Chair in Geopolitics at the Foreign Policy Research Institute
War, being life at its most intense and extreme, is a matter of innumerable contingencies. So no one is really...Read MoreSergey Radchenko
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Henry A. Kissinger Center at Johns Hopkins SAIS
Kyiv has no incentive to make any territorial concessions to Russia. Such concessions would undermine President Zelensky domestically. They are...Read MoreSeth G. Jones
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Senior Vice President of the Center for Strategic and International Studies
The war in Ukraine has all the makings of a protracted conflict that heats up—and cools down—over several months and...Read MoreStephen Wertheim
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 3
Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Visiting Lecturer at Yale Law School
Pity the fool who ventures confident predictions about the course of this war. Still, the stubborn reality is that Ukraine...Read MoreSusi Dennison
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations
At this moment, it is hard to imagine Western support scaling up to a point that risks escalating the conflict,...Read MoreTanisha Fazal
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota
Neither side has the political slack to back down, at least right now. Ukraine has overperformed militarily and is extremely...Read MoreTatiana Stanovaya
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Nonresident Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
I am pretty confident that there are no chances that Russia and Ukraine would negotiate any peace deal that would...Read MoreThomas Graham
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
I am less confident that there will be a negotiated settlement than that Ukraine will not recover all its territory...Read MoreTimothy Frye
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Marshall D. Shulman Professor of Post-Soviet Foreign Policy at Columbia University
A negotiated peace with some territorial concessions by Kyiv is a possible, perhaps likely, outcome given the challenge of establishing...Read MoreTimothy Naftali
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Clinical Associate Professor of History and Public Service at New York University
Crimea might not be reclaimed by Ukraine, but Kyiv will not renounce its claim. The four provinces, on the other...Read MoreTimothy Snyder
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Richard C. Levin Professor of History and Public Affairs at Yale University
I do not think that this is particularly likely. Russia has already formally (from its point of view) annexed Ukrainian...Read MoreTristan Volpe
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Assistant Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School
Almost all wars end with negotiated settlements. But it remains to be seen whether Ukraine can completely repel the Russian...Read MoreVladislav Zubok
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 1
Professor of International History at the London School of Economics
My take is that the longer this war lasts, the more dire its consequences. Territorial concessions therefore become more and...Read MoreYevgenia Albats
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Editor of The New Time
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