NYT Russia - Ukraine War Briefing December 14, 2022

 

December 14, 2022

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

Russian forces shelled the main administrative building in Kherson, where Ukrainians hoisted their flag a month ago to celebrate retaking the city. Almost seven million children in Ukraine are at risk this winter, deprived of electricity, heat and water, UNICEF warned. An international conference held in Paris raised nearly a billion euros to repair electricity infrastructure, water systems, roads and health centers pummeled by Russian strikes. Get the latest updates here.

The drone attack in Kyiv caused damage to some buildings. Laura Boushnak for The New York Times

The war in Ukraine’s skies

The residents of Kyiv woke up once again to the sound of air raid sirens and explosions. Before dawn, Russia unleashed 13 Iranian-made drones on the capital, most of which were destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses, according to Ukrainian officials.

Two government buildings in Kyiv and at least four homes in the region were damaged, possibly from falling debris from drones shot out of the sky. The attack followed a wave of devastating drone strikes on Odesa over the weekend that seemed to end a weekslong pause in Russia’s use of the drones.

As winter sets in, Russian missiles and drones have repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, depriving millions of civilians of electricity, water and heat. But Ukraine’s air defenses may be about to gain a powerful asset.

The U.S. is poised to approve a transfer of the Patriot air defense system — the nation’s most advanced ground-based air defense weapon — to Ukraine, two U.S. officials told The Times on Tuesday. Patriot batteries use sophisticated radar and missiles to intercept enemy targets, including missiles and aircraft, up to 100 miles away at high altitude. (Their track record has been mixed against drones.)

The U.S. had previously resisted providing the Patriot batteries, which are relatively scarce. CNN, which reported the Patriot news earlier, noted that a Patriot battery requires “dozens of personnel” who have received extensive training.

Experts say there are not deep stockpiles of Patriot missiles available for transfer to Ukraine. And many questions remain about the potential transfer, including how long it would take to train Ukrainian soldiers on the system, presumably in Germany, and where the Patriots would be deployed inside Ukraine.

The Biden administration has also resisted sending its most advanced weaponry to Ukraine on the grounds that it might escalate the war with Russia. That calculus has shifted as Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, and deepened its military alliance with Iran.

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia would “undoubtedly” target the Patriot air defense system if the Pentagon carried out its plans of supplying Kyiv with a battery.

The United States’ willingness to consider the transfer is a win for Ukrainian officials, who have intensified their pleas for air defenses to counter Russia’s relentless attacks.

Ukraine has become a testing ground for state-of-the-art weapons and information systems, and new ways to use them. A salvo of Iranian-made drones, known as Shahed-136, fired last week on Odesa was the first in three weeks to hit Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials and military analysts had said that Russia had either run out or was running low on Iranian drones or that the cold winter weather had interfered with their operation. The attack today in Kyiv, where it was 23 degrees Fahrenheit in the early morning, suggests that if there was a cold-weather glitch, it has been fixed.

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Satellite image by Planet Labs

Will Russia’s defenses hold?

Russia has accelerated the construction of trenches and traps along the eastern and southern fronts, a Times analysis of satellite imagery shows. In an area where Russian forces are waging an offensive near the eastern city of Bakhmut, the structures appeared within six days.

The fortifications could slow Ukraine’s army, my colleagues Marco Hernandez and Josh Holder report. But Ukrainian forces may test Russia’s ability to hold these positions.

The defenses include miles-long rows of concrete pyramids known as dragon’s teeth and deep ditches called tank traps. Both are designed to slow Ukrainian vehicles and force them into positions where Russian forces can target them. Russia is also building miles of trenches, and pillboxes for their troops to shoot from.

Near Bakhmut, the newly built defenses provide Russian fighters with several options for retreat. That could help Russia avoid a repeat of its costly withdrawal from the Kharkiv region in September, when it lost thousands of square miles of territory and was forced to abandon military equipment.

Ultimately, the success of Russia’s defenses depends on the quality of the troops defending them. Military analysts say the new defense lines could easily collapse if they are manned by poorly trained and unequipped new recruits.

What else we’re following

To provide comprehensive coverage of the war, we often link to outside sources. Some of these require a subscription.

In Ukraine

Three ports on the Black Sea are back up and running, three days after Russian strikes on Odesa caused a shutdown. The U.N. nuclear watchdog agency will send permanent teams of safety experts to all of Ukraine’s nuclear power stations. Suedi Murekezi, a U.S. citizen who was detained by Russian forces in Kherson in June, has been released along with a group of other prisoners. A small group of activists in Kherson helped Ukrainian forces target a Russian site, highlighting Ukraine’s use of partisans, The Wall Street Journal reported. For many residents of Kyiv, the risks of a nuclear war warrant some contingency plans, like cramming a backpack with provisions, The Washington Post reports. David Letterman traveled to Kyiv and interviewed President Volodymyr Zelensky in an underground subway station.

Around the world

Zelensky called on European leaders to immediately set up a special tribunal to hold Russia accountable as he accepted the Sakharov Prize. The U.S. charged five Russian citizens and two U.S. nationals with conspiring to illegally obtain and ship millions of dollars’ worth of U.S.-made, military-grade technology to Russia. Pope Francis suggested that people celebrate “a more humble Christmas” by spending less on gifts and instead making donations to Ukrainians.

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The future of Banksy’s murals scattered in and around Kyiv is a topic of debate after an activist removed one with the intent of selling it to raise funds for the Ukrainian Army. At a time when dissent is being crushed across Russia, Vladmir Ovchinnikov has gained fame for his murals protesting the invasion.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Friday. — Carole

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