Perspectives on North Africa

 Atlantic Council

Perspectives on North Africa

Karim Mezran 

August 15, 2022

This month was a turbulent one for many countries in North Africa, in particular for Tunisia. On July 25th, Tunisians took to the polls to express their approval of a new constitution proposed by President Kais Saied, who froze parliament and dismissed the Prime Minister last year because he deemed it necessary to rid the country of corrupt leaders. Saied’s constitution includes provisions that expand presidential powers, limit the parliament, and allow the president to extend his term without limit in case of “imminent danger”. Voters overwhelmingly supported the overturning of the democratically-chartered 2014 constitution in favor of Saied’s. However, initial data stated only 25% of eligible voters participated in the referendum, but days later the “Independent” High Electoral Commission (ISIE), under Saied’s control, announced a voter turnout of 30.5%, a rather high spike in such a short time frame. The ISIE’s chief of staff was later sacked over these seeming mishaps. Overall, the lack of voter turnout may be attributed to a boycott from opposition groups that oppose Kais Saied. Two days before the referendum, opposition groups marched across Tunis, calling Saied’s ascension an illegal process. Without a minimum participation rate requirement, however, Saied has now cemented his one-man rule over Tunisia.

Critics across the globe have called the drafting of Saied’s constitution a violation of electoral laws. With the passage of this new constitution, there are concerns about the new unchecked powers of the presidency, which includes the ability to dissolve parliament, approve government budgets, supersede parliament legislation, and more. Tunisian society will have to continue to advocate for a democratic vision while suffering under continued economic hardship and the prospect of authoritarianism.

In other news, Libya witnessed a major shift in alliances when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted Abdullah Al-Lafi, deputy head of Libya’s Presidential Council, and Aguila Saleh, head of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives of Libya, signaling Turkey’s reconciliation with Egypt and the UAE. During the meeting, Ankara emphasized its support for a unified Libya, not differentiating between its east and west, while also seeking to boost bilateral ties and extend its military support of the UN-recognized government in Tripoli. For the only country that militarily supported the war against General Khalifa Haftar in 2019, hosting one of Haftar’s allies was a big deal. Erdogan wants stability in the Eastern Mediterranean at all costs in order to protect his own interests in the region, even if this means compromising with the enemy.

On the Moroccan front, King Mohammed VI expressed his willingness to bring the ongoing tensions with Algeria to an end. During King Mohammed VI’s July 30th speech that celebrated the 22nd anniversary of his ascension to the throne, he explained that he views Morocco and Algeria’s security as intertwined. Morocco and Algeria have been in dispute over a number of issues, mainly that of the status of Western Sahara since the 1970s, with the border between the two nations closing in 1994 and official diplomatic relations ending in 2021. Whether the King's speech was sincere or a pretext for uplifting his own reputation internationally remains to be seen.

I look forward to hearing back from you. In the meantime, have a restful August.

Karim Mezran