Erdoğan and Guterres will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Lviv on Thursday

 

By SUZANNE LYNCH

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

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UKRAINE VISIT        

NEW OVERNIGHT: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Lviv on Thursday, with Guterres then due to visit Odesa on Friday. 

Significance: This is Erdoğan’s inaugural visit to Ukraine, and his first face-to-face meeting with Zelenskyy since Russia launched its assault in February. Meanwhile, Erdoğan has met Russia’s President Vladimir Putin twice in the past few weeks, including at the Russian holiday resort of Sochi.

Divided loyalties: Despite Ankara’s claim that it’s an honest broker in negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow — Turkey is, after all, a NATO member — Erdoğan’s visit comes amid deepening concern about his relationship with Moscow. Turkey, which is battling an economic crisis with inflation roaring at 80 percent, has seen its trade with Russia surge in recent months — Transport Minister Adil Karaismailoğlu boasted about the uptick in car sales between the two countries last week.

What to expect: Much of this week’s discussions will focus on the increasingly precarious situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, following its seizure by Russian forces. Zelenskyy said this week that his country would fire on Russian troops launching attacks on Ukrainian targets “under cover” of the nuclear site.

Safety call: Zelenskyy spoke with Emmanuel Macron Tuesday, with the French president calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Zaporizhzhia, and for a proposed visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency to go ahead. Ukraine has called on the IAEA and the U.N. to visit the Zaporizhzhia site, but Russian officials have variously said visiting the area is too dangerous and claimed that U.N. officials had canceled or blocked visits to the facility — statements the U.N. has refuted.

BLACK SEA GRAIN DEAL REALITY CHECK: Ships are finally moving out of the Black Sea after a U.N.-brokered deal negotiated by Turkey with Ukraine and Russia was agreed last month. But the process has been beset by problems. As POLITICO’s Eddy Wax and Sarah Anne Aarup set out in this piece, there are ongoing issues …

Getting food to those most in need: The first supplies of grain from Ukraine have not all gone to the world’s neediest people, and contrary to popular perception, the vast majority of what’s currently being exported isn’t wheat. Corn has gone to the U.K. and Ireland, while Italy has received shipments of sunflower seeds and soybeans. That said, officials reckon there’s a perfectly good explanation for this: Most of the product stuck on the vessels for months was corn; hence it’s getting out first. Plus, corn is an essential animal feed, so it plays a key role in alleviating the food crisis.

Getting in and out: Most of the vessels that have now left Ukraine were stuck there; experts wonder whether new ships will want to enter the country’s harbors now. Securing insurance is key to this — but while some insurers have started offering policies, many are calling for a broader scheme.

Accusations flying: Delays have also developed after Kyiv accused Russia of smuggling stolen grain out of Ukraine. The Syrian-flagged Laodicea ship, which was seized after Ukraine said its cargo was stolen from Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Kherson, finally left Lebanon two weeks ago. 

CRIMEA IN FOCUS: Meanwhile, ahead of the Erdoğan and Guterres visit, massive explosions have hit Crimea, the southern Ukrainian peninsula which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. The blasts engulfed an ammunition base and prompted the evacuation of thousands of people. The possibility that Ukraine can now hit deep into Russian-held territory could inject a new dynamic into the nearly six-month old war.

What about Kherson? For two months, Ukraine has been signaling its intent to recapture the southern city of Kherson in a major counteroffensive. But as POLITICO’s Christopher Miller and Paul McLeary report, while Ukrainian artillery and rockets provided by the U.S. and allies have smashed bridges and Russian ammunition depots close to the city, a larger movement of infantry has yet to happen. Meanwhile, the Russians are reinforcing and digging in, they write.

NOW READ THIS: The Washington Post has a big read this morning about the run-up to Russia’s war, which outlines the extent to which the U.S. struggled to convince European allies of the threat posed by Putin. When Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines briefed allies in Brussels last November, the French and German officials dismissed warnings that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine. “Only the British and the Baltic states were fully on board,” the piece says.

OP-ED — DON’T MAKE ANOTHER GAS MISTAKE: Gligor Radečić, a gas campaign leader at CEE Bankwatch Network, argues that the gas deal struck last month by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen with Azerbaijan’s autocratic President Ilham Aliyev “stands in defiance of the EU’s own climate goals and its human rights standards.”

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