The French EU presidency can lay the foundations of a new Europe

 

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The French EU presidency can lay the foundations of a new Europe By Alberto Alemanno, EU law professor at HEC Paris Business School "The year 2022 must be a turning point for Europe," French President Emmanuel Macron said in his New Year's Eve national address. As Frances takes over the rotating six-month presidency of the EU Council in an unprecedented favourable moment for EU integration and with a clear integrationist agenda, we have reason to believe his words. Under a motto revealing a heavy pre-electoral influence ("Reforming Europe to make France progress") prompted by the forthcoming French presidential elections, Macron intends to push forward the consolidation of a unified European geopolitical power. But beyond his great promises, what can we realistically expect from this simultaneous French EU presidency and France's presidential elections in this delicate moment for Europe’s integration? The 2022 French Presidency of the EU Council is set to go down in history as a moment of truth for the bloc. As such, it could mark the beginning of a new stage in Europe’s development. And yet, despite the vast majority support that the European Parliament has thrown behind the French ambitious vision, this is not a risk-free endeavour. First, this Euro-presidency is not only set to Europeanise the domestic political debate – similarly to what it occurred in France in 2017 –, but also to Gallicise the European agenda to an unprecedented extent. Macron’s speech before the European Parliament offered a glimpse of this dual dynamic. It gave a preview of not only the national electoral debate that will be preceding the French presidential elections but also of the broader transnational political conversation that might ensue. Macron was accused by rivals of using the Council presidency as a springboard toward a reelection bid, but those very same rivals used the parliament's plenary as a platform for their national electoral campaigns. Ultimately, it became impossible to discern what was European and what was national in the heated exchange of views inside the hemicycle. Contrary to what French MEPs keep repeating, it is impossible to pretend the national and European spheres are separate political entities when, in realty, the two largely overlap.  The French Presidency also coincides with other major consequential moments for the continent’s direction, from the arrival of the German coalition government to the upcoming elections in Portugal, Slovenia and, more critically, Hungary, which together will further blend European themes with the national electoral conversations. This extraordinary convergence of circumstances, when combined with the ongoing pandemic and the geopolitical tensions alongside the Ukrainian border, render the French EU presidency qualitatively different than previous ones. Second, the temporal overlap between the EU presidency and the domestic presidential race is set to act as a constraint at best and a handicap at worst for Paris and its ability to act as a facilitator among domestic interests. This could prove problematic in a moment of deep divisions on fundamental values, as epitomised by the current rule of law crisis and the inability of the von der Leyen Commission to hold governments accountable for their legal breaches. The choice of Europe as the privileged battleground for the run to the presidency is therefore set to lead to an unprecedented polarisation both within and outside France. Amid media and public attention, the European subject is set to become one of – if not the – major points of contention among national candidates and their respective forces. This dynamic seems already at play with virtually all major contenders, from Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour to Valérie Pécresse. In particular, Macron’s militant posture towards EU integration may foster – as opposed to alleviate – tensions with rebellious member states, such as Hungary, Poland and Slovenia, and even alienate them from the ongoing Conference on the Future of Europe. Unless this simmering tension is addressed, the presidency’s effectiveness in advancing and steering a variety of complex policy files – from Fit for 55 to the EU Digital Package – will be tarnished. At the same time, the unprecedented politicisation of the French presidency and its potentially disruptive spillover effects across the continent might serve to shed light – both within and outside France – on major, unsolved challenges facing the continent. Albeit difficult and jumpy, this French-led journey for the European continent may trigger a healthy, refreshing, though disturbing, transnational conversation about what Europe should stand for today. That conversation is set to transcend the temporal limits of the French EU presidency and lay the foundations for the Europe of tomorrow.